The final week of October begins under a cloud of uncertainty. The delayed release of fresh US inflation data (CPI) and the ongoing government shutdown are reducing the transparency of the macroeconomic picture. It is worth recalling that September CPI came in below forecasts, which put pressure on the dollar and helped EUR/USD stabilise near 1.1600. Gold is undergoing a correction after its recent record high, Brent crude has rebounded from five-month lows, while Bitcoin is consolidating after a sharp decline. Volatility is likely to remain elevated ahead of the upcoming Fed and ECB meetings.
💶 EUR/USD
EUR/USD ended the five-day period near 1.1625, trading within a narrow sideways range of 1.1567-1.1675. The short-term outlook remains positive for the single European currency as long as the pair holds above 1.1580. A breakout above 1.1675-1.1710 would open the way towards 1.1795-1.1810 and 1.1900. The nearest support lies in the 1.1570-1.1600 zone, followed by 1.1500-1.1525, and in the event of a confident breakdown the pair may move towards 1.1400. With limited macroeconomic data coming from the US, further dynamics will depend mainly on market sentiment and policy signals from the Fed (FOMC) and the ECB.
₿ BTC/USD
Bitcoin is consolidating after a volatile start to the month, trading around 111,500. ETF inflows remain stable, but investor sentiment is still cautious following the sharp swings observed in early October. The main zone of current volatility is confined within the 109,000–117,000 channel. The nearest resistance levels are at 112,000, 116,000-117,000, followed by 120,000 and 124,000. Support zones are found at 110,900, 109,500 and 106,500-107,000, with the strongest support at 103,500-103,700, followed by the psychologically important area of 98,000-100,000.
🛢 Brent
A few weeks ago we forecast that the 64.80-65.00 zone would become a key level in the battle between bulls and bears. And now Brent, having rebounded from five-month lows near 60.00 dollars per barrel, has closed the week exactly in this area, at 65.13. The subsequent upward impulse may again turn this zone into strong medium-term support, from which prices could continue rising towards 68.00-69.00, targeting 69.80. However, fears of an oil shortage remain limited: the futures curve still points to an oversupplied market in the coming months. Therefore, the price is likely to fluctuate within the 60.00-65.00 range, with occasional dips to 58.00.
🥇 XAU/USD
Our forecast for a gold correction after its record high also proved 100% accurate. As expected, after surging to 4,380 dollars per ounce, the price then corrected to 4,000 and ended last week at 4,113. The precious metal remains supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and uncertainty regarding US fiscal policy. The uptrend remains intact while prices stay above 4,000. The nearest resistance levels are at 4,330–4,380. The bulls’ target by year-end is the 5,000 mark. However, a deeper correction cannot be ruled out – down to 3,940 and 3,850.
📌 Conclusion
In the final week of October, market attention is focused on the meetings of two key central banks – the FOMC of the US Federal Reserve on 29 October and the ECB on 30 October. The policy decisions and subsequent comments from their leadership at press conferences will be the main reference point for financial markets. Until the monetary signals from the Fed and ECB become clearer, traders are likely to remain cautious, reacting to every statement and shift in sentiment regarding the dollar, interest rates and overall risk appetite.
In addition to the Fed and ECB meetings, attention will also turn to the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on 30 October. The week will also include the release of preliminary US Q3 GDP data, inflation reports from the euro area and Germany, as well as statistics on American household income and spending.
